Bad gambling systems don’t adjust bets in relation to risk, and they don’t affect the overall probability of winning or losing, but they often SEEM to do both by squeezing and stretching risk. The purpose is to fool the player into thinking that the house edge has changed. The effect is like taking drugs. It feels great when the money is rolling in, but there is always an inevitable crash.

Here’s a classic roulette example:

Betting two units on a group of twelve and three units on a totally opposite even money contest. One way to do it would be $10 on 1-12 and $15 on high numbers. This combined wager pushes the risk into only eight numbers, 13-18, 0 and 00. A win either way pays an aggregate of $5. A loss costs the bettor $25. Losses occur 21% percent of the time, on average about one in five spins. Wins occur the other four times, so five spins will usually cost $5. Of course you could easily win ten consecutive times and be ahead $50. Or you could get a run of 15, 17 , and zero. That would cost you $75.

The system IS lowering the frequency of losses, and it’s raising your bets, but it’s not changing the casino’s advantage. The house edge remains 5.26% of the total amount wagered (on an American wheel).

Systems that raise bets after losses (like the martingale) are known as negative progressions. Positive progressions are a mirror-opposite. The gambler lowers the wager after a loss and increases it after a win. The intended effect is to bet more when winning and less when losing. That sounds like a good strategy, but the unexpected problem is to identify when you’re winning. Take a look at the following table.

This is a basic 1-2-3 positive progression. The bettor increases one unit after a win and drops back to a one unit bet after a loss. Consecutive wins bring profit even if there are consecutive losses. The problem with most positive progressions is that they’re not very positive if the table goes choppy (wins and losses alternate). In the long run a positive progression doesn’t work any better than a negative progression. Bets are going up and down with no correlation to the actual probability of winning.

Nevertheless, many experienced gamblers use positive progressions. Why? Because they’re "gambling" away smaller wins in the hope of catching a big fat run. The big run IS inevitable, but the player may have a busted bankroll long before it appears.

There are thousands of gambling systems, and most are worthless. They either don’t affect the house edge, or they improve it for the casino. The worst systems can be VERY damaging to your bankroll.

So how do you find a good gambling system?

Like most things of quality, good gambling systems come from reputable sources. They are NOT secret, and they’re not sold for high prices on cheapy web pages. Yes, the guaranteed-to-win-or-your-money-back hype can be tempting, but ask the following questions and you’ll quickly see the hype turn hollow.

1. What is the EXACT advantage to the player when measured as a percent?

2. Has this system been tested in computer simulations? Over how many millions of trials?

3. What magazines, books, or newsgroups have reviewed the system?

Scammers will try to bluff their way past the first two questions, but the last one always stops them cold. When something works then it is widely recognized and publicly discussed. You’ll find the best systems/strategies in reputable books (like the Unofficial Guide to Casino Gambling), and in other reliable sources that provide information about gambling.

But if this information is so readily available, why do people continue to use bad systems? Or no systems?

Good question.

Perhaps it’s the mental block that I described at the beginning of this article. Perhaps it’s laziness. Blackjack basic strategy has been around for decades, but most people continue to play hunches. Craps optimal strategy is well-documented, but gamblers continue to buy numbers and play propositions. Roulette, video poker, slots... they each have an optimal strategy. But most gamblers don’t bother to learn it. Go figure.